How to frame your own prices

As punters, one of the most useful skills we can develop is how to assess the price we should obtain before stepping in to back a selection(s).

Punters that give no consideration to price in their betting decisions stand little chance of securing consistent value, which is essential to long term punting success.

The most common and useful way to assess value is to construct your own betting market and use that as an indicator to the fair price for each horse. Many punters have a misguided belief that framing your own prices is a difficult process and one that requires a special skill or mathematical formula. The truth is that anyone can learn to frame his or her own prices and it takes no time at all.

The first point you should remember is that market prices are nothing more than an opinion about the winning chances of each horse. Framing your own prices then is about converting the opinion you have about each horse into a number, which when combined with all runners gives you an idea of that horses winning chance and therefore, value price.

The method I am about to outline is quick and simple yet just as effective as any other you will come across.

The Easy-Price Method

After analysing a race, allocate a point score to each horse ranging from 1 to 10, to indicate your opinion of the horses winning chance. A horse allocated 10 points is one you consider a standout selection, while a horse allocated 1 point is considered to have little chance of winning.

The following table can be used as a guide to deciding the number of points to allocate to each horse:



In many instances your opinion will lie somewhere in between these categories, so all you need to do is allocate the number of points that best reflects your opinion. For example, if you feel a horse lies somewhere between having a 'good chance' and 'some chance' you could allocate it 5 points. After assessing a few races you will quickly develop a feel of how many points your differing opinions are worth.

You may choose to carry this out for all runners in a race, but I only price the top four or five chances and use that as the basis for my win betting.

To demonstrate this process in action let's take a look at Doomben race 5 from last Saturday 23rd August, which was provided as part of the free Pace Advantage service.

Step 1: Allocate your points to each horse

Moonah Brooke - was the top ranked runner on both the 'recent' and 'best' speed ratings. He was 2 points clear of the next horse and looked certain of securing the run of the race. He was however rated up to his best form and did have a query over his first up effort. With that one query I classified Moonah Brooke as having a good chance and allocated him 7 points.

King Shalford - was rated a clear 2nd on his 'recent' and 'best' speed ratings. His last start was a very strong effort behind Martino over 1600m. He looked suited by the pace but from barrier 8 there was a slight question about where he would be positioned in the run. That was the only concern so I decided to also allocate him 7 points.

Kid Millions - was rated 3rd, comfortably behind Moonah Brooke and King Shalford. He was also drawn in 9 and with other on pace runners drawn inside the position map showed he might face a tough run. Overall he had some chance but his ratings and likely tough run were of some concern so I allocated him 3 points.

Speedie Gonzales - was rated 4th on recent speed ratings and equal 3rd on his best ratings. The race comment noted that he liked to go at a good early pace in the lead and after getting run down in a weaker race last start, he needed to improve to turn it around here. With that in mind and his recent ratings not quite up to the others, I felt he had a little less chance than Kid Million and allocated him 2 points.

Step 2: Convert your points to winning chances

To calculate the winning chance of each horse you simply take its point score as percentage of the total points and multiply that by the percentage you wish to set your market to.

Your market percentage reflects the combined winning chance of each horse, so when pricing all runners it's logical that their combined chance equals 100%. However when only pricing four or five runners in a race it's important that you set your market to less than 100% to make allowance for the combined winning chance (all be it small) of the runners you have not priced individually.

As a rule of thumb, in an average twelve horse race you should set your market to 80-85% for the top five runners. Smaller fields can be as high a 95% while large capacity fields of 16 and greater should be anywhere down to 65-70%.

For the four runners in this eleven horse race I decided to set my market to 80%. The winning chance of each horse then became:



Step 3: Calculate your prices

To calculate the price for each horse, divide its winning chance into 100.



In the space of a few minutes we have turned our opinion of each horse into a price that can be used as a guide to what we should accept as fair before betting. So what were the actual market prices for this race?



From our prices we can immediately see that Moonah Brooke and King Shalford are at what we consider to be a fair price, while Kid Millions and Speedie Gonzales are not. As the favourite, Kid Millions looked especially poor value and what is commonly referred to as a 'false favourite'.

King Shalford ultimately won the race at an excellent value price, with Speedie Gonzales 2nd and Moonah Brooke 3rd. Kid Millions was unplaced. The quinella paid $19.20, exacta $35.60 and trifecta $237.00.

The way you use your prices depends entirely on your betting strategy. Some punters prefer to only back their top selection providing they can get a fair price. Others prefer to bet more broadly and back all of those runners that represent value. One strategy is not better or more profitable than another; the most important thing is that you select a betting approach you are comfortable with.

Successful punters know that selecting winners is only half the battle. Securing value and making sensible betting decisions is just as important and a vital skill that many (losing) punters ignore. By using this simple approach to framing your own prices you can adopt a much more professional approach to your betting and reap the bottom line benefits!

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